BRICS Doubles Share of Global Oil Production In Welcoming Six New Members at BRICS Summit in S. Africa
The Petrodollar is on Borrowed Time. America's Chickens are Coming Home To Roost.
The highly-anticipated BRICS Summit has come to an end, and the petrodollar isn’t far behind it.
In a HISTORIC move, BRICS has added 6 countries to the group — Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, UAE, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
It was initially spread on social media throughout today that with the new members, BRICS now controls 80% of the global oil market in terms of production.
I am not sure where this figure originated from, but in the process of writing this article, and trying to verify it, I have discovered all the large accounts promoting the figure do not source this claim, and the Telesurenglish article that threw that figure out was doing so by embedding one of these accounts on twitter.
To put it bluntly, it seems someone pulled it out of their ass and it was amplified and boosted without people verifying.
Sprinter’s tweet, along with many others, racked up millions of views, which claimed BRICS now controls 80% of global oil production, and 30% of the GDP.
So what does the real data say?
Well, the 30% GDP was true before the 6 members were added. Just the BRICS core members accounted for 32% of global GDP. Now, according to President Lula, BRICS accounts for 37% of global GDP, and 46% of the global population.
UPDATE: 8/25/23 — The World Bank Figures Show BRICS to now constitute 30% of the global GDP, Lula seems to have represented the new BRICS share of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity(PPP) — would be 37%.. But the normal GDP is 30%.
As the Cradle reported in “In numbers: BRICS+ vs G7”:
The expansion of BRICS+ from five to 11 members will bring about a massive shift in the global economic system, as by January 2024, the Global South alliance will surpass the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US-led G7 in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by over $11 trillion, according to financial data from CEIC Data.
PPP considers the relative cost of local goods, services, and inflation rates of a country rather than using international market exchange rates, which may distort the fundamental differences in per capita income.”
Regardless, BRICS went from controlling 20% of global oil production, to 42% of global oil production.
As reported by THINK in “BRICS Expansion: The Saudi Surprise Adds Momentum to the De-dollarisation Debate”,
That is still a very large leap, 20 to 42%,, and a very large chunk of the global oil trade.
And according to TASS, BRICS+ nations now “boast 44.35% of global oil reserves, according to TASS’ calculations based on official data, thus overtaking the G7 nations (US, UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, France, Japan), which have only a 3.9% share.”
THINK subtitled the piece: “The big surprise from the BRICS summit in South Africa is that Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the group of major emerging countries. And that’s adding fresh impetus to the de-dollarisation debate, which is a potential challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in global trade”
If you’ve been reading my publications, obviously Saudi Arabia wasn’t a surprise. The Saudis been butting heads and then distancing themselves from the US since March 2022, which was a large inspiration for my article then predicting the rise of BRICS.
I published “BRICS Summit Day 1 Highlights” on the first day of the summit, before Saudi Arabia’s addition to BRICs “surprised” so many.
”In contrast to the controversial members like Pakistan, or Argentina, Saudi Arabia may be one of the most suitable applicants for BRICS in this point of contention between BRICS members, as they have forged ties with all of BRICS. In this author’s opinion, it is probable they will be one of the first countries to be accepted.
The THINK article also raised interest in the Saudi Riyal being pegged to the dollar.
The Saudi peg question
Away from the implications of how quickly the dollar’s role as the only international currency is challenged, we are also interested in what this all means for the Saudi riyal, which has been pegged to the dollar at SAR3.75/USD since the 1980s.
Any occasional bouts of speculation against the riyal – largely through the FX forwards market – have been quickly fought off by Saudi authorities. Should the Saudis start to de-dollarise their economy through increasing receipts on non-dollar currencies, investors may start to question whether changes will be coming to the peg – e.g. should the riyal be managed against a basket of currencies rather than against the dollar alone?
A twitter user pointed out that according to 2022 data, the new BRICS members now account for over 50% of global oil exports(as opposed to production).
Update[8/25]: The Cradle has reported; “By welcoming energy giants like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the Global South alliance also has 6 of the world's top 10 oil producers among its ranks and will control 38 percent of the world's natural gas supply, 60 percent of oil exports, and 67 percent of coal production.” There is some dispute about these numbers. But the bottom line is BRICS just gained a large chunk of the global oil market, and a greater share of the overall market.
Of course, this expansion of BRICS control over the oil market directly threatens the petrodollar, and thus, the US dollar.
All the while, de-dollarization marches on, as BRICS leaders announced that the focus over the next year for finance ministers would be to “consider the issues of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms”.
8/24/23 — BRICS Payment System Would Not Replace Swift -S.Africa Finance Minister
De-dollarisation is a particular priority for Russia, whose economy has been crippled by sanctions imposed by the West over its invasion of Ukraine and is banned from SWIFT.
…. Enoch Godongwana, who hosted his fellow BRICS finance ministers at the summit, told Reuters. “It is a payment system which facilitates a deepening of the use of local currencies.”
At the conclusion of a three-day BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the bloc's leaders announced they would task their finance ministers to consider the issues of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms and report back in a year.
On the 23rd, Putin gave a speech in which he called De-dollarization “irreversible”, and said that the effort to de-dollarize is '“gaining momentum”
Also on Wednesday the 23rd, as reported by The Cradle, “India started asking local banks to drop the US dollar in transactions with the UAE and instead use the Emirati dirham or Indian rupee”
On Tuesday, the Financial Times published, “BRICS New Development Bank Strives to Reduce Reliance on the Dollar, To Begin Lending in South African, Brazilian, Indian Currencies”
The Atlantic Council published a piece today titled, “BRICS is doubling its membership. Is the bloc a new rival for the G7?”. The article concluded with the following paragraphs::
But over time, groupings such as the BRICS have the potential to undermine Washington’s power when it comes to punishing or isolating countries pursuing policies that contradict US interests, especially if they seek alternative systems and methods for trade and payment over which Washington lacks the same leverage that it has today over SWIFT, for example.
In the view of the BRICS states, including the newly invited members, reducing global US economic and financial leverage would create a more level playing field, while countries such as Iran would view it as a way to further reduce the impact of sanctions.
For Washington, it should be a warning: the need to strengthen and renew relationships with allies has never been more important. The emerging world might be multipolar, but some poles will be closer than others.
To add on to the Atlantic Council’s take away from the situation being that warning for America being that the “need to strengthen and renew relationships with allies has never been more important”….
I maintain that the takeaway should be that we(as Americans) have to stop creating and manufacturing enemies. To insist on strengthening relationships with current allies deflects from the phenomenon that is causing previous allies to turn into enemies…
If we, as a nation, do not realize why the Saudi Arabia, UAE, or India, have turned their back to the US…. the US will continue losing allies and alienating itself from the world.
As so often happens in this universe, until we learn from lessons, we are doomed to repeat them - that is karma. That is also largely the point of studying history. To learn from it, and avoid repeating the errors of the past.
If the reader of this article does not realize why this rally around BRICS is happening, why allies are turning away from us towards Russia and China, I refer you to my article from a year and a half ago that predicted the rise of BRICS.
I tried to warn people this was where America was headed if the US did not change course.
As I concluded in March 2022 a month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The policies and behavior of the US towards nations neutral in the NATO/Russia confict - sanctions and threats of sanctions - would lead to a new global order in which “BRICS nations rise as the new dominant power of the globe.”
The blowback from US sanctions is now undeniable, as BRICS gains momentum beyond the point of being able to be written off.
Needless to say, our leaders kept trying to force authority over the trade between sovereign nations.
Leading up to the BRICS summit, just a month ago, I published an article recapping and acknowledging the significant developments in geopolitical relations, including trade relations, since I had published in March the year prior.
The article largely covered the developments in trade relations - countries dropping the dollar in bilateral trade, and continued threats of sanctions by the US towards neutral countries who refuse to yield sovereignty to the US.
However, the article also served to expand beyond a dualistic perception of BRICS Vs. Western Axis, and served to paint a unity in their agendas. I suspect incompetence, misappraisal of the situation by the intelligence community and policy makers doesn’t explain the US experiencing such blowback. At a certain point, I find it hard to believe that the policy makers and geopolitical “experts” guided America down such a misguided path - out of sheer arrogance, hubris, and ignorance.
I find Occam’s razor to be that the people in charge driving America off a cliff are doing so, knowing that they are driving off a cliff.
As I stated in my recent BRICS article’s conclusion after acknowledging that BRICS countries were leading the charge in much of the 2030 agenda, such as testing, piloting, and rolling out CBDCs :
In 2012, The DNI (Office of Director of National Intelligence) released a report titled “Global Trends 2030” which lead to headlines such as the USA Today’s “Intel Report Sees U.S. Losing Superpower Status by 2030”. The 2012 DNI report would predict that on the way to 2030 power will shift to "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."
"The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today," the report concludes. "By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power."
To think transnational globalists wouldn’t be hedging their bets against the US in lue of such predictions(by the DNI) is naïve. In this author’s opinion, Western globalists have already abandoned America, chosen it to be a scrape goat/ sacrificial lamb, and are preparing for an emerging multi-polar world, which the 2012 DNI Global Trends 2020 report predicted. I think the notion that America could be experiencing a sort of controlled demolition is worth considering.
But perhaps it is just sheer incompetence, stupidity, arrogance, and gross negligence. Whatever the case, the outcome is the same. The global south is beginning to find the burden of the US “rules based order” too great to bear, and it is dropping that weight.
A major point I noted in the my recent article from July was Syria (and Iran) having rapidly normalized relations with the Arab world and BRICS nations such as India since my March 2022 series - another signal that the US was losing control and influence.
A bit over a week later I published another article in response to a Business Insider propaganda piece on Syria, which can be seen as one of many potential case studies on why the world is turning against the US.
Business Insider: Russia and Iran Supporting Syria 'To Push US Forces Out In a Coercive and Systematic Effort'
At the end of the day, the US really needs to get its shit together. We need to stop pillaging, and stealing from other countries. America’s leaders need to stop bullying the rest of the world, and expecting countries to drop their sovereignty on the whim of Washington, or the powers that operate through Washington.
For better or for worse, Putin’s comment below in his address to the BRICS summit is succinct in explaining the global sentiment that has been brewing against the dollar.
And alot of this colonialism isn’t overt like it used to be, it is financial, economic colonialism. Africa and Latin America have a rocky history with the IMF and World Bank. I am wrapping up this article, but to scratch the surface on that, in my BRICS article a month ago, I wrote:
This is the common theme, BRICS+ members and the global south, from Africa to Latin America to The Middle East to Asia, are upset with having their sovereignty and interests overridden by foreign, western interests.
Likewise US-centric systems and paradigms of global finance has only served to replace one form of colonialism with another - these institutions like the IMF, World Bank and much of their “solutions” are not designed for distributed and sustainable prosperity.
4/05/21 — IMF Austerity is Alive and Increasing Poverty and Inequality
4/21/22 — 87% of the IMF's Pandemic-Related Loans Are Now Forcing Austerity on Crisis-Ravaged Nations[1,2,3]
NBC reported on the global south's bitterness towards the IMF and World Bank in “Emerging Economies Group Brics Invites 6 New Members, Including Saudi Arabia and Iran”
Gustavo de Carvalho, policy analyst and senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said on X that the prospective new members will not only increase the visibility of the BRICS bloc, but also provide an opportunity for coalition participants to trade with one another in local currencies.
Brazil’s da Silva on Thursday noted the BRICS group continues to study the possibility of a bloc currency, which could “increase our options for [a] means of payment and reduce our vulnerabilities,” according to an official summit translation.
“It’s still uncertain what will happen to the group dynamics, but clearly it brings a new space for trade within the Global South. Much of the arguments in the communique reflected the collective voice on need for change of international institutions, especially international financial institutions like the World Bank, IMF [International Monetary Fund] and WTO [World Trade Organization],” de Carvalho noted.”
The World Bank, IMF, and WTO spawned the anti-globalization movement.
Resentment and distrust towards those institutions has been building throughout the global south for years. That is why China’s AIIB and BRICS New Development Bank are in demand, as many countries have piss-poor experience in dealing with the IMF.
Speaking of globalists, consider reading my last article I published a few days ago:
I digress, if the US wants to stop losing influence, it has to start engaging in more mutually beneficial, respectful relationships with countries. The US needs to stop treating other countries as vassal states(slaves), but rather treat them as sovereign equals. If we fail to learn from history and our mistakes as a nation, more hard lessons will be learned.
I find it appropriate to end with a Lao Tzu quote about mistakes from Tao Te Ching: “A great nation is like a great man: When he makes a mistake, he realizes it. Having realized it, he admits it. Having admitted it, he corrects it. He considers those who point out his faults as his most benevolent teachers.”
PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/mcg150
Cashapp: cash.app/$mcguiremitchell
Venmo: @mitchell-mcguire-3
BTC: bc1qu5jkdcnpj0sng73tqd9x5yrdh6yax8j04ve9l0
ETH: 0xD2dD7cb09157333261F3962C6f3265ab00786415
BAT: 0xD2dD7cb09157333261F3962C6f3265ab00786415
XMR: 4AEar3H9NUYNscRaA64YobWyKcufrsj7RQuYVA89dNJ5ZDGzs41k41bBuvq6VYfvZk8jvg1wVVs8xA4GaBkaMnDrJkcvTkt